National economic outlook improves, MB construction jobs rise

The early 2024 fears Canada’s economy was in for rough waters have abated somewhat, with no imminent indicator of impending recession, an economic outlook analysis by the Canadian Construction Association noted August 15.

The outlook, prepared by Mario Baker, CCA’s assistant manager of economic and policy development, looked at data trends in labour force, inflation, GDP and business confidence data, Q1 2024, compared to previous quarters.

The most important issues weighing on the economy and minds of business owners continue to be inflation and the labour market. While there are risks, the fears about a marked economic slow down or recession have not materialized.

Further, there is reason to think the construction industry, generally, will have a good end-of-year result.

Interest rates are starting to come down, inflation has slowed; percentage increase in GDP in the first quarter was small. The unemployment rate remains stubbornly above 6% but the driving factor is the fact more people are joining the labour market, not layoffs, the CCA report noted.

The data show Manitoba had strong growth (6.2%) in construction jobs Q1 2024, compared to Q4 2023, well above the Canadian average and second lonely to New Brunswick (7.3%).

On the flip side, productivity remains a serious issue. In construction, productivity has stagnated as the data show the number of hours worked, the number of jobs and the unit labour costs continue their post-pandemic climb.

A Bank of Canada survey found that businesses remain concerned about shortages of labour and the rising cost of inputs.

Click here to see the CCA’s slide presentation.

MHCA has requested the construction data be separated for a view of the heavy construction numbers, including Manitoba specific data.